A constant refrain in political analysis is, essentially, that nothing matters. Sometimes, it can feel like not even a massive gaffe or scandal can affect how voters feel about a candidate, and not even major news events can move public opinion on issues.
But sometimes, things do matter. Presidential debates are one of those things. Last week’s debate between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump produced fewer policy specifics than voters wanted, but along the way Harris succeeded in painting Trump in a bad light. In the week since the debate, polls have shown a slight increase in support for the Democratic nominee. As a result, on Monday, Sept. 16, Harris’s chance of winning the election according to 538’s forecasting model reached 61-in-100 — surpassing her previous high from Aug. 26.
If we look at all the polls that have been conducted entirely after the debate and compare them with each firm’s pre-debate survey, Harris has made small gains in most of …