NFL head coach fourth down decisions: Mike Tomlin, Dan Campbell employed wildly different approaches in 2024 [Video]

Poring over fourth down decision making from the 2024 NFL regular season confirmed there is bifurcation in how head coaches value fourth down analytics. There are decidedly old-school coaches who have no use for such data, and those who cling to the data like a religious text. There were, however, some surprises this past season in which coaches fell into which category.

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Mike Tomlin started the 2024 season the way he ended the 2023 season and every season before that as Steelers head coach: By making obscenely suboptimal fourth down decisions.

Tomlin in Week 1 against the Falcons put on a veritable master class in how to destroy a team’s win probability, a stat for which Tomlin does not care. In Pittsburgh’s Week 1 win against Atlanta, Tomlin made two of the least optimal fourth down calls of the entire 2024 season, …