The Internet is a swamp for many things, and college basketball projections have their own special section in the marsh. Most of these prognostications come from honest and knowledgeable professionals, but these fools would admit most of their foresight is mostly a collection of educated guesses. That is not the case with stat guru, Evan Miya, who relies on math more than opinion. His recent preseason simulations should invoke optimism for Kentucky fans.
Miya ran 1,000 college basketball season simulations and then took the 5th and 95th percentile of each team’s finish to determine their ceiling and floor. For Kentucky, this resulted in a floor of 125th in the country (not so great) but a ceiling of 4th in the country (much, much better).
A Final Four berth (or to throw out the randomness of the tournament, a 1 seed) in Mark Pope’s first season would be incredible, but it is also worth mentioning that Kentucky’s median outcome throughout the 1,000 simulations …